<p>Hola, </p>
<p>Un colega me hizo llegar una copia de un trabajo publicado en 2009 cuyos
autores son geofisicos franceses, chilenos y bulgaros. El trabajo, publicado en
la revista "Physics of the earth and planetary interiors", termina
con la siguiente conclusion: <span style="font-family: 'Lucida Console',
Courier, 'Courier New'; font-size: 23px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing:
2px; -webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 2px; ">"It is possible that the
northern part of the plate interface between Constitución and Concepción was affected by the earthquakes of 1851, 1928 and 1939, but it is unlikely that this was the
case near the city of Concepción. We would then conclude that the southern part of the Concepción-Constitución gap has accumulated a slip deficit that is large enough to produce a very large earthquake of about Mw= 8.0-8.5." Bastante impresionante como
prediccion. Abajo copio el abstract. El pdf puede obtenerse electronicamente.
Saludos,</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Juan Pablo</p>
<p> </p><span style="font-family: 'Lucida Console', Courier, 'Courier New';
font-size: 23px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 2px;
-webkit-border-vertical-spacing: 2px; "><br style="padding-top: 0px;
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/>--------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;
padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;
margin-left: 0px; " />J.C. Ruegg, A. Rudloff, C. Vigny, R. Madariaga, J.B. de
Chabalier, J. Campos, E. Kausel, S. Barrientos, D. Dimitrov (2009) Interseismic
strain accumulation measured by GPS in the seismic gap between Constitución and Concepción in Chile. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 175:78-85<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px;
margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; "
/><br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;
padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;
margin-left: 0px; " />Abstract<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px;
padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px;
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; " />The Concepción-Constitución area [35-37°S] in South Central Chile is very likely a mature seismic gap, since no large
subduction earthquake has occurred there since 1835. Three campaigns of global
positioning system (GPS) measurements were carried out in this area in 1996,
1999 and 2002. We observed a network of about 40 sites, including two east-west
transects ranging from the coastal area to the Argentina border and one
north-south profile along the coast. Our measurements are consistent with the
Nazca/South America relative angular velocity (55.9°N, 95.2°W, 0.610°/Ma) discussed by Vigny et al. (2008, this issue) which predicts a convergence of
68mm/year oriented 79°N at the Chilean trench near 36°S. With respect to stable South America, horizontal velocities decrease from 45mm/year on the coast to
10mm/year in the Cordillera. Vertical velocities exhibit a coherent pattern
with negative values of about 10mm/year on the coast and slightly positive or
near zero in the Central Valley or the Cordillera. Horizontal velocities have
formal uncertainties in the range of 1-3mm/year and vertical velocities around
3-6mm/year. Surface deformation in this area of South Central Chile is
consistent with a fully coupled elastic loading on the subduction interface at
depth. The best fit to our data is obtained with a dip of 16±3°, a locking depth of 55±5 km and a dislocation corresponding to 67mm/year oriented 78°N. However in the northern area of our network the fit is improved locally by using a
lower dip around 13°. Finally a convergence motion of about 68mm/year represents more than 10m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction
event in this area over 170 years ago (1835 earthquake described by Darwin).
Therefore, in a worst case scenario, the area already has a potential for an
earthquake of magnitude as large as 8-8.5, should it happen in the near
future.<br style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px;
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<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p>Dr Juan Pablo Paz<br />
Profesor Titular UBA, Investigador Principal CONICET<br />
Departamento de Fisica & Instituto de Fisica de Buenos Aires<br />
FCEyN UBA, Pabellon 1, Ciudad Universitaria<br />
1428 Buenos Aires, Argentina<br />
Email: paz@df.uba.ar<br />
Phone: +54-11-45763353<br /> <a href="http://www.df.uba.ar/users/paz"
target="_blank">http://www.df.uba.ar/users/paz</a><br /> <a
href="http://www.qufiba.df.uba.ar"
target="_blank">http://www.qufiba.df.uba.ar</a></p>